By Pat Jones
Twitter is wonderful hub for ideas but it’s a lousy place for context…particularly when the topic is something as complex as the industry’s big show. So rather than go back and forth in Tweets, I thought I’d try to put some perspective on what just happened. Here are 25 thoughts about GCSAA in San Diego and what it means to the event’s future.
1. First and foremost, it was an awesome experience. I mean it. Even at half its recent size, the face-to-face interaction combined with terrific content (education, gatherings like Ladies Leading Turf, awards, etc.) was irreplaceably valuable. It was the feel-good hit of the winter.
2. The GCSAA staff did an astonishing job of pulling this whole thing off. It easily could have not happened. I’ve been to 33 of these: this was by far the smallest event I’ve witnessed but also the most memorable in a lot of ways. And yes, I took 400 selfies to prove it.
3. Though small in size, the event was a big win when the association needed it most. Had they been forced into a second year of virtual show, the impact on their revenues would have been very nasty and probably long-lasting. How much of the “normal” $8-9 million in annual C&S revenue did they take in for 2022? I’m guessing maybe two-thirds despite a shortfall of 100+ exhibitors and historically low registration and fees revenue. Their finances are badly rattled, but not gutted.
4. Reality Check: there were only about 1,500 superintendents there out of 6,500 total attendees (buyers and sellers).
5. San Diego was warm and pretty and welcoming. Some people love this location (particularly left-coasters and those who can get direct flights there) and it is convenient for walking and partying. But it is more expensive for attendees and a LOT more expensive for exhibitors and GCSAA. California convention center costs are some of the nation’s highest.
6. Those event costs are critical because GCSAA is trying to maximize revenues and minimize expenses so they can use what’s left over to do all the stuff that costs more money than it makes: education, advocacy, career development, admin, etc. That’s why GCSAA loved San Antonio while most of us didn’t: the event was far more profitable there and even with smaller numbers, their bottom line was bigger.
7. As early as last November I told anyone who would listen that, if the show happened at all, attendance would be half of the normal west coast count of 12,000. I hate it when I’m right all the time. It was a perfect storm of reasons not to attend. The risks and the hassles outweighed the benefits for lots of reasonable folks. I can’t blame any individual or company for taking a pass. It felt like a crapshoot up until a few weeks before the event.
8. Being me, I knew I’d go to San Diego come hell or high water. Side note: I didn’t schedule much stuff this week after the show because I had to assume I’d come home with Covid or some other trade show malady. Happily, my booster apparently worked and no ‘rona for me! I haven’t heard any “super-spreader” horror stories about other attendees…yet.
9. The vaccine passport thingy worked fine and I did my best to wear my mask consistently on the show floor (but often failed). Once folks were inside, all bets were off. The mask mandate wasn’t very mandatory once you were on the show floor or in a classroom. The idea that everyone had been tested or vaxxed was some solace, but the whole thing felt more like theater than public health.
10. For two years, I’ve been preaching my theory that Covid accelerated a bunch of industry trends that were already happening. People were already starting to return to golf as exercise and a respite from the world in 2019. The pandemic turbocharged that. Conversely, we’d had more than a decade of eroding attendance at GIS/GCSAA before the 2021 event was cancelled and 2022 got Covidized.
11. So while we all wonder how much of the pandemic bubble we can retain to grow the golf business, we also have to consider what all this means to the cash cow…the GCSAA expo that funds all the fun.
12. Note that I said “expo” and not “event.” That’s an important distinction. The event – the conference education and related stuff – is healthy and terrific. People love the networking and the camaraderie and that will never change. It’s invaluable to attend if you want to be engaged in the golf community at a high level. If you do it right, the annual conference can be a hugely important part of your career and your life. It’s the epicenter of the turf business and social community.
13. That said, the actual trade show – the expo – is facing some big challenges. First, there’s the general downturn in expos since this thing called the Internet showed up. I’m not talking about virtual shows – those suck. I’m talking about the other zillion ways for sellers to reach buyers in the age of Amazon, Meta and YouTube. Recent pre-pandemic attendance (13,000-ish) was only about half of the all-time highs in Orlando during the batshit crazy golf boom times 20 years ago.
14. For the newer firms that exhibit, the show can be an amazing door-opener and a way to learn the market. But for most mature companies and salespeople, the GCSAA expo is yet another chance to be face-to-face with customers they already know. The same as regional shows, chapter meetings, sponsored events, sales calls, tournaments, etc., etc., etc. Face time is great and it is fun as hell but it doesn’t contribute measurably to Turf Company X’s sales figures.
15. And it’s expensive to be on that show floor. Huge companies spend hugely – one north of $1 million a show by all accounts – and lots of leading companies are in the $100,000-$250,000 range when you include booth space, booth costs, promo, travel, hotels, entertainment, giveaways, etc. When I ran GCI, our simple little booth plus travel and expenses for 6-8 people was easily $20K.
16. Exhibitors will tell you the booth space and the sponsorships they buy from GCSAA are the smallest part of that expense. When Turf Company X spends $75,000 for the show, a fraction of that – maybe $15,000 – actually goes to the GCSAA. Then the GCSAA has to pay for all the show costs. When all is said and done, the net profit (“excess revenue”) generated by that $75K spend by Turf Company X might only be a few thousand dollars in the cash register at GCSAA HQ.
17. And remember that the ultimate success of the cash cow expo depends largely on CUSTOMERS SHOWING UP and engaging with exhibitors. When smaller registration numbers combine with supers who head home or off to the beach instead of to the show floor, the optics are terrible. As much as this show should be seen as a qualitative vs. quantitative success, you can’t disregard the sparse traffic on Wednesday afternoon and empty aisles on Thursday morning. Some veteran exhibitors were not happy.
18. No one on the industry side questions the value GCSAA brings to the business or the importance of financially supporting the association’s mission. Most are happy to give when they see a need. But it’s getting harder for exhibitors to justify the annual expense when the trade show returns – both for them and for the association – are diminishing.
19. So what do they do?
20. Option 1 is to stay the course and just keep doing what they’re doing now: holding on for dear life, cutting expenses and hoping the deterioration of this business model slows or reverses itself. Orlando will obviously be better next year, but I just don’t see it ratcheting right back up to pre-pandemic levels. Particularly with Phoenix and San Diego, two western sites, coming right after. In short, they will cross their fingers and hope that this was a temporary problem and plow ahead.
21. Option 2 is to stop rotating and just keep the show in Orlando (the best-attended location with a decent cost structure). Schedule it to follow the PGA show every year and call it a day. This is the option that makes the most traditional business sense and eliminates a lot of the uncertainties and financial ups and downs of moving the expo from place to place. This option has been discussed and even negotiated over the years, but leadership always rejects it because members say they want variety in locations. The question is can you afford to cater to that desire?
22. Option 3 is to go to an every-other-year format for the expo. There are lots of biannual shows out there, particularly in mature markets with high exhibition costs. This is a much more sustainable approach from the industry standpoint but the association would have to blow up their cash flow model and figure out new ways to tap companies for support to maintain services at their current levels. Many companies say they’d contribute an amount equivalent to what GCSAA would earn from their participation on years there’s no show – that $15K that actually gets paid to the association. In theory, GCSAA stays largely whole financially but exhibitors save a lot.
23. Option 3 doesn’t mean no event at all in non-expo years. They could have the conference (education, business and networking) rotating to a variety of locations in alternate years. That opens the door to cities like Nashville, Savannah, New Orleans or Austin without having to worry as much about convention centers and such. I love this idea but, again, the disruption to GCSAA’s finances would be significant. That said it might be the better long-term solution to keep industry support and meet member desires at the same time.
24. So here we are, blessed beyond belief that golf is healthier than it’s been in years. We’re overcoming huge supply chain challenges and historic demands for labor to feed the growth of our industry. The GCSAA conference continues to improve in terms of content, scope, inclusiveness and creativity. Yet no one is quite sure what’s going to happen with the biggest trade show in our happy little business because the economics stink.
25. In the end, I know one thing: the industry can survive without the GCSAA expo but the GCSAA expo can’t survive without industry. I adore this event — it’s been a big part of my career — and I hope they figure out a solution, because we need an active, well-funded association leading the way more now than ever before.
