We will get through this.
The current state of the golf industry ranges from business as usual to completely closed for the foreseeable future.
Based on surveys I've seen from several places, my educated guess is that a third of all courses are closed for play, a third are golf-only with tight precautions and a third are largely business as usual but with Clorox wipes all over the place.
If I had to bet the farm, I'd bet it on some form of nationwide "shelter in place" order coming soon. But in the meantime supers are dealing with a million questions including "what are the actual frickin' rules in my state?" Even in places like NY, California and Illinois where governors made it clear non-essential businesses were to close, supers and owners have read that to mean basic maintenance was still okay. Most are working with reduced or skeleton crews to keep turf alive and mowed to maintain the fundamental value of the asset.
Let's be honest, anything other than staying at home right now creates some level of risk for you and the rest of us. Yet many of us think courses can continue to operate with appropriate precautions. This will, perhaps, be revealed as foolish at some point but smarter folks than I (including the State of Washington) have looked at it and agreed.
Ohio just closed pretty much everything on Sunday. That said I was still happy to see this letter from my Buckeye golf peeps to Ohio's Governor Dewine urging him to continue to allow operations. This is good language to steal in other states as you all go through some version of this process of deciding how pandemics and golf coexist.
Wherever you are, you need to be an advocate for golf right now. Not because of our economic impact (we're beyond that argument now) but because golf courses offer an invaluable safe haven for both our bodies and our minds. With a few fixes, golf itself is a textbook social distancing activity. That bodes well for at least one aspect of golf in a post-COVID world...demand.
So what's going to happen on the other side of the equation... the supply side? What's going to happen to golf courses?
Before we talk about that, let's start with the awful truth of this epidemic: it's very likely people we know are going to get infected and some of them are going to die. In a tight-knit community like ours it is going to suck hard. Be prepared for the fact that lives will be cut short by this stupid fucking virus.
Okay, on to the more mundane subject of the market. From a macro standpoint the global economy is shattered by uncertainty. Golf is awesome and everything but economically we are a flea on the tail of the dog. People are getting laid off by the thousands and small businesses are boarding up. Recession? For sure. Probably worse that 2009. Depression? Possibly according to smarter folks than me. It is, as I cannot stop saying, uncharted territory for all of us.
A percentage of the courses that are closing now will never reopen. How many? Hundreds for sure. We have 14,500-ish facilities at last count and I gotta think 10-15% were already on fumes after several consecutive shitty weather years. I am truly sorry if you work for one of them but many courses that have been paying everyone out of cash flow just won't survive this.
By the way, not all of those courses that fail will be mom-and-pops or small daily fees. There are plenty of clubs at risk too. Poor management, failure to have any reserves and inherent problems like location or competition will kill weak private clubs too. Also at risk are bank-owned operations and ones tied up with real-estate or hospitality ventures that go belly up because of this.
That said, the majority of courses will survive this but the landscape will have changed dramatically. Business in the next six months is going to be very tough between closures (which might be done regionally on a rolling basis for months), layoffs and a big spending downturn as disposable income shrinks for millions of Americans at every level.
Thousands of supers are already being challenged to manage some kind of closure both agronomically and business-wise with decreased or even skeleton staff levels. Twitter has proved invaluable for this kind of information and there's good stuff available via GCSAA, USGA and elsewhere but mostly it’s creative, hardworking turfheads getting it done.
I expect, when we look back on this in a few months, we will be blown away by how well a handful of dedicated folks can present a quality product. At least for a while. If the weather plays along.
Yet, while there is confusion and concern, there is little bitching and moaning. As always, superintendents have risen to the occasion. I never cease to be amazed at how good y'all are at solving problems.
The only advice I can give you is to be ready to change. Many of us — me included — are going to be working and living on the fly for the next six months. Those of us who adapt to the new normal best will come out of this thing just fine.
I know it's scary as hell and uncertainty stinks, but we'll get through it. Just remember these words:
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
the courage to change the things I can,
and the wisdom to know the difference.
Much love to all of y'all. Be safe.--